Alberta has already approved far more oil sands production than the world will want according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

If the IEA is right, it means an end to new oil sands project approvals and probably an abandonment of some that have already been approved. It also means Canadians might want to re-evaluate the need for bitterly controversial new tar sands pipelines—like Keystone XL, Northern Gateway and the Trans Mountain twin.

Let's take a look at some of the details.

The IEA has arguably the world's most detailed and comprehensive database on global energy. Their flagship annual report—World Energy Outlook—is an essential resource relied upon by many of the world's major economies, as well as global energy industries. The IEA's 2010 World Energy Outlook report specifically analyzed future oil sands demand under several possible energy scenarios. In every scenario, global demand for oil sands in 2035 was well below what has now been approved.

What makes this analysis so remarkable is that the IEA is a friendly proponent of the oil sands. They open their report saying "production from Canadian oil sands is set to continue to grow over the projection period, making an important contribution to the world’s energy security." No greenie tree-huggers there.

(note: this is just an excerpt from my full article published on the Vancouver Observer. Please click the link below to read the full article.)

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